Tropical Depression One-E may threaten Clarion next week

Discussion in 'San Diego Long Range fishing Reports' started by Blue Chummer, May 22, 2014.

  1. Blue Chummer

    Blue Chummer Newbie

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    First Depression of season developing around Clipperton Area . Models taking it towards the Calrion island or south of early next week. Some strengthening to tropical storm category may happen.

    Pretty early in the season....
     
  2. redsnapper517

    redsnapper517 Well-Known "Member"

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    Intrepid web site says water temp is 82.7 and Bait is about to Roll.
     
  3. Bill W

    Bill W tunaholic

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    Not good, Excel leaving in a few days. Rooster leaving in 10 days...

    Hot water makes it's own weather.
     
  4. wxdunn

    wxdunn Member

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    TD one has a pretty disorganized structure, but under the right conditions these things can organize quickly.
    Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th, so we're in it...
    NHC official forecast track never takes it above 12.5° N No need to get too worried about it just yet...
    GFS model takes it to about 13° north before shunting off to the west in 5-6 days. We'll see what happens.
    TD1.png
    TD1.gif
     
  5. Bill W

    Bill W tunaholic

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    Now classified tropical storm Amanda. 40 MPH wind speed to 50 traveling WNW at 4 mph

    Forecast to reach 70 MPH and gusts to 85 in a few days...
     
  6. NoLDR

    NoLDR OG BD member

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    Sounds like the weather we had in November 2013. Had to leave the Bank after 24 hours to get out of it.
     
  7. lowelld

    lowelld Member

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    Time for the REEL authority to come out of hibernation. Looking forward to more weekly reports as the "Anchovy" bite develops.
     
  8. Tar Pit

    Tar Pit Well-Known "Member"

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    On a side note.

    Can any of the LR boats help to cool the bait tank water by using the RSW equipment. I would think they could cool it down 8-10 degree and save thousand of dollars of bait.
     
  9. Blue Chummer

    Blue Chummer Newbie

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    Looks like Amanda is expected to take more of a northerly route and could become a Cat 1 hurricane this weekend. If this is the case could threaten clarion mid next week.
     
  10. wxdunn

    wxdunn Member

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    Yes, the storm was upgraded to a TS this morning and is forecast to become a minimal hurricane. I've seen the intensity forecast not materialize...and I've also seen it blow way past the projected intensity. It has a favorable environment for strengthening right now. Light shear aloft and warm SSTs (80°+ is the general threshold to maintain a tropical system). The main factor influencing the eventual strength and path will be a trough along the west coast next week. One model actually takes the storm close to Cabo San Lucas next week, while others leave it far out to sea, just south of the Revillas. I will post some sort of video update later tonight with the latest thinking, forecast, models, etc. as we head into the holiday weekend...and as the Excel heads down the line on a 15-dayer.
     
    LTBOLTMAN and Bill W like this.
  11. bluewaterbum

    bluewaterbum Well-Known "Member"

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    At least the intrepid will be headed home by then
     
  12. SlideRight

    SlideRight Just Fishin'

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    mid May/Oct. it's the usual - a bones roll
     
  13. wxdunn

    wxdunn Member

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  14. Texastuna

    Texastuna Texastuna

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    Thanks Chris headind down next week on RR June Heat trip !!!
     
  15. Blue Chummer

    Blue Chummer Newbie

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    Thanks Chris for the Video update.
    Looks like Amanda is strengthening quickly , warm water , limited. shear. Should be a cat 1 today and now expected to be a good size Cat 2.

    Intrepid is bailing already :(

    Good morning everyone. Yesterday was more of the same in that catching was very poor. Conditions are not bad with the exception of the water being so warm. What I mean is that we have good fishing current and the water color is awesome. We do however have a lack of fish. Visual sign is at a very minimum and bird life is almost non existent. What this all means in the grand scheme of things is th...at we are not catching much. As of right now it appears that unless something changes drastically we are going to have to run from Amanda now. Luckily she has not picked up in speed, but she has picked up in size and unfortunately we have gotten off to a slow start only to be chased out of the grounds by a tropical storm. We will however remain vigilant and keep trying our best. All we can do is give it our all. The cards will lay as they will. Thanks for checking in on us. More than likely we will be working North and finish our trip off fishing like 10 day style.
     
  16. Blue Chummer

    Blue Chummer Newbie

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    Now Hurricane Amanda . Models take it Close to Clarion and now forecasting to reach cat 3 status before weakening.



    ep201401_5day.gif Now
     
  17. bluewaterbum

    bluewaterbum Well-Known "Member"

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    I think the crew on the Intrepid is a little gun shy after the last couple of years... That said, even if they think the storm is going to move slow that doesn't mean that it couldn't pick up steam and cause problems if the boat stayed south and was to get caught by Amanada, what would be said on all forums about the actions of the skipper... So, running early is a smart move, plus the fishing is sucking right now down there....
     
  18. bluewaterbum

    bluewaterbum Well-Known "Member"

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    I think the crew on the Intrepid is a little gun shy after the last couple of years... That said, even if they think the storm is going to move slow that doesn't mean that it couldn't pick up steam and cause problems if the boat stayed south and was to get caught by Amanada what would be said on all forums about the actions of the skipper... So, running early is a smart move, plus the fishing is sucking right now down there....
     
  19. Blue Chummer

    Blue Chummer Newbie

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    Smart move for the Intrepid. Also may bet some good intel for the coming June 6-8 days trips.
    They are a little gun shy from last October trip, but its better to be safe than.... and Eastern Pacific hurricanes are notorious for being more unpredictable than the Atlantic Stuff. Fast strengthen,weakening, unpredictable moves etc.
     
  20. Steve K

    Steve K Hey, I'm gettin' bit...

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    Just a quick opinion poll. Does anyone really believe that the captain of the Intrepid makes decisions based on what people might say on a message board forum? I don't think so.

    Quick question: Why do they call Shimada Seamount the "Hurricane Bank"? ;)
     

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