Seeking knowledge:

Dexter Outdoors

Montaukmaniac

Thats my son, not me.
Feb 8, 2011
866
788
Westchester NY
Name
Steve
Boat
miss ion/fish on, "Wish on"
This thread goes out to all veteran SDLR anglers, meteorologists, climatologists, historians and persons with long but accurate memories.

(You know who you are!)

Disclaimer: Let's start with the belief that fishing and catching are clearly two different things.

I'm seeking information & hoping to learn from my betters about how a trend plays out over time.

Given that we are in the midst of a notable El Niño fishing season, with great results to the north of where they historically occur; how will this trend likely play out for long range trips until the end of the year???

Truth in advertising: Having just made the final payment on a trip in late October, I'd like to understand how past El Niño's have played out; with regard to larger fish appearing North of the usual range at the southern banks, Clarion, Hurricane etc, etc.?


Many thanks in advance for all of your experience, knowledge, input & efforts.

Best regards and tight lines!
 
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surfgoose

active geezer
  • Jul 29, 2010
    3,081
    4,870
    Long Beach, CA, USA
    Name
    Gary
    Boat
    whichever has the longest bunk
    Steve, you picked a GREAT time to come out to SoCal to go fishing! I don't think that conditions will change very much at all in the next eight weeks. The real question about El Nino effects will be at the end of the year and next spring. What will likely happen in late October is the vast majority of fishermen will have run out of money and stopped fishing, and thus most of the fleet will have drastically reduced their schedules, or even stopped for the year. The pressure on the bait will be greatly reduced, thus there is a good chance that your trip will start off with a full load of cured bait. Your trip will head for wherever the fish are biting at the time, which could very well be American waters, so keep an open mind and not get fixated on where the boat will go.

    I've paid for a 2.5 at the start of September, and then I have just enough left in the budget for a 1.5 whenever my Arizona brother comes for a visit, probably during October. Then I will have to live vicariously through the adventures of others, so I'm looking forward to reading your report!
     
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    Montaukmaniac

    Thats my son, not me.
    Feb 8, 2011
    866
    788
    Westchester NY
    Name
    Steve
    Boat
    miss ion/fish on, "Wish on"
    Brief clarification:

    I have had the great pleasure to have finished long range from late August to early November five times since 2009. Rather than asking about general conditions at that time of year, I'm seeking knowledge about how this year (El Niño) conditions might differ from the recent past, based on past experiences or scientific data.

    Many thanks.
     
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    Montaukmaniac

    Thats my son, not me.
    Feb 8, 2011
    866
    788
    Westchester NY
    Name
    Steve
    Boat
    miss ion/fish on, "Wish on"
    (I can't believe there aren't SDLR veterans out there, with reports from those famous days of yesteryear El Niño's & how far north the big fish actually came...)
     
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    Steve K

    Hey, I'm gettin' bit...
    Jan 2, 2005
    11,514
    7,202
    Bishop
    Name
    Steve
    Boat
    18' Bayrunner, but I like the American Angler and the Red Rooster III
    (I can't believe there aren't SDLR veterans out there, with reports from those famous days of yesteryear El Niño's & how far north the big fish actually came...)

    Strangely enough, warm water years don't always deliver big fish. If you're thinking about big Yellowfin on the Lower Banks, back in the anomaly year of 2005, it all just went off. The following year was a warm water year and the first cow was taken on a trip that departed after Thanksgiving.

    It can produce phenomenal Wahoo fishing at Alijos and on the Ridge. Like last year, when Alijos Wahoo provided off the hook fishing into January.
     
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    Bill W

    tunaholic
  • Jan 12, 2006
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    Chino Hills, Ca.
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    Bill Walsh
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    Red Rooster
    The normal California current backs off with a El Niño. The direction of the California current down South creates an upwelling along the coast and islands. (Coriolis Effect) Without the current to feed the baitfish, well...

    And you thought it was all about a few degrees warmer water.

    As far as the history of Long Range, I could not find anything for the 1997 El Niño...
     
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    freegaff2

    Member
    Aug 31, 2014
    861
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    Craig Simcox
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    none
    Bill, 1997 was a major event, like this one is supposed to be...I also remember a 1.5 day on the PQ that put on 250+ albacore and close to 50 BF in Aug of '97...point is, I don't think there is enough recorded history to accurately predict fishing...Montauk might as well spend $20 bucks, and do a session with Madam Ruby, the palm reader :)
     
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    Bill W

    tunaholic
  • Jan 12, 2006
    5,617
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    Bill Walsh
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    Red Rooster
    I agree that as far as fishing there is opportunity but the normal places may not produce. The hordes of fish are moving North, not because of the water temperature but because they have to eat. It's all about the need to feed...
     
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    Scold

    Yes, that's my back.
    Dec 1, 2009
    3,462
    1,974
    San Jose, CA
    Name
    Jon
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    N/A :(
    My first ever LR trip was a 7day in '98 on the Q105. We fished guadalupe and caught plenty of yft and yt's. Ended the trip up north chasing albacore and caught plenty of those. The strange thing to me in regards to the albacore is that it seems as if the southern edge of their biomass has been moving north each year. From '97 - '02 or '03, the albacore fishing was phenomenal from mexico to the golden gate. Then the southern edge became Morro Bay. Then Monterrey. Then from 2010 or so - 2013, the southern edge was the 601 (a spot almost dead west of santa cruz....slightly north) with the majority of the fish being caught in Eureka up through washington state. Last year and this year, no albacore have been seen south of Eureka and they are absolutely HAMMERING them up in Washington. Very strange to say the least.
     
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    screamingreel

    Long Range Fanatic
    Jan 14, 2006
    2,473
    3,007
    Walnut Creek CA
    longrangesportfishingsandiego.com
    Name
    Jeff Burroughs
    Boat
    Long Range and Private
    Hello Steve,

    Been fishing long range over 20 years. Last El Nino and following year did not produce any additional cow tuna more northerly than you might find them any year. As you can tell from fishing this year, every year is different!

    Go out, fish hard and have fun...

    - Jeff Burroughs
     
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    Montaukmaniac

    Thats my son, not me.
    Feb 8, 2011
    866
    788
    Westchester NY
    Name
    Steve
    Boat
    miss ion/fish on, "Wish on"
    See you can get good input on this site. This time you don't have to weed thru a lot of STUFF.

    Gentleman, (Bill W, Mike, Jeff, Jon, Dave, Craig & Steve ) all the above info was helpful & what I was curious to find out about.

    (NOT bilge water answers, but informed info.)

    All the responses help to give knowledgeable, experienced information.

    As for Madam Ruby, I hadn't posted on her forum ...

    This is THE place for quality SDLR info.


    I am indebted to all.

    Many thanks!!!

    Tight lines.
     
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