Predictions On Offshore Fishing This Weekend

Discussion in 'Southern CA Sport Boat Trip Planning' started by geegorie, Nov 6, 2017.

  1. Markus

    Markus Member

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    Cardiff
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    Markus Medk
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    Be very cautious using the National Weather Service to plan your trips nowadays. The last few years I've found them to consistently err on the on the side of heavier winds and bigger sea than we actually encounter. Currently my favorite site is Windy.com, which used to be known as Windyty. Their forecast made it clear the weather would be fine Friday and today, which it was, (and the fishing was good both days, Bluefin Friday and nice yellowfin today).
    We had some of our best fishing this year when half the fleet cancelled due to NWS forecasts while Windy correctly forecasted good conditions.
    Check it out, it really shows a very good big picture view and a fine scale of where you are planning to be.
     
    rrhyne, ZZZZZ, Vigilant32 and 2 others like this.
  2. Randy V

    Randy V Slamma Jamma

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    So what did you catch?

    Numbers, temp. depth.?
     
  3. MYNomad

    MYNomad Heading South

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    That is my starting point too. It was showing 5' at 10 or 11 secs with 10 -15 knots of wind in the waters between Ensenada and Point Loma for yesterday and today. And that turned out to be accurate -- a PIA for smaller boats (my buddy on his 40' express fished, but not comfortably), but I would think no problem for the sporties. It certainly would not have stopped me from taking my boat on a day and a half trip (though, I would not have set off on a multi-day on my boat without a bailout plan in case things got worse than predicted. If 5' turns into 6 to 8', and if the period shortens to 6 secs, and if wind increases to 25 knots, it will be victory at sea and I would likely be barfing.
     
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  4. nmthree

    nmthree Nick M- So Cal

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    Terrible! Sorry man!
     
  5. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

    Location:
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    Philip Hunkins
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    The rest of the fleet stayed towards clemente. We went looking for bluefin. Crossed the fly in the dark, were at the 60 at daybreak and were headed to the mushroom I believe. Wound up 95+ miles offshore. Caught 30 yellowfin from 40lbs to the jackpot fish of 59 lbs. Little windy, but very fishable. Never saw any bluefin. Water temp was 66.5.
     
  6. carterantebi

    carterantebi I hate fishing

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    Carter
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    The trip I canceled on...
    :zelfmoord IMG_1732.PNG
     
  7. Azarkon

    Azarkon I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Actually my experience is that the national weather service will under estimate the weather when you use the local area service. I too use the wind website to start with and then combine it with referencing other models. It’s important to take into account both the wind and the swell period because the lack of local wind in an area doesn’t indicate there won’t be a short period swell due to wind from a nearby area up the wind direction. It’s much easier to see the big picture with the video map.

    When taking both into account the weather call has been spot on for me every time I used it this year, and it is this that is saying next week will be shit for everyone while this weekend was bad for small boats offshore. I hope it will calm down by thanksgiving week but there is no guarantee this early.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
  8. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    I would trust the owner/captain of the New Lo An when he talks about weather sites. His business relies on them.
     
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  9. Azarkon

    Azarkon I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    I would trust sport captains, too, for safety reasons, but like I said, I've gone out in gale wind warnings on a sport boat before where the captain would say, "hey guys we can't fish the back side of the island because it's 40 miles wind over there so I'm going to keep to the front." They can and will take you out in rough conditions as long as it's safe. But that doesn't necessarily make you want to be there.

    Next week, for example, should be safe for sport boats almost anywhere, so I expect them to run trips all week long. But it won't be nice any where from 50 to 100 miles offshore, except maybe on Thursday morning.

    But I think Markus is one of the better captains when it comes to not putting his customers in shit conditions, so in this specific case, I'm sure you're right.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
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  10. geegorie

    geegorie Newbie

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    Unfortunately, I had to postpone due to some family stuff. Being an adult sucks sometimes.
     
  11. plj46

    plj46 I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Five pages for a cancelled trip ?
     
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  12. ZZZZZ

    ZZZZZ natural born jig slingers

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    Bummer on the cancellations. Well a huge amount of people were trying to convince others not to go fishing relating a or thier private boat to a sportie. The nor cal guys laugh at so cal weather forecasts but we get them on the fishing and weather :D I do understand and respect caution in a private boat. Looked fishable to me on a sportie considering the tuna are going to skin out soon. The national weather service often times reports it heavier then its going to be most likely. Like a liability thing.

    Its Nov 12th now she's fat and ready to sing soon imo. The meat sounds 95 miles out and about to get pushed farther out. I was gunning for him and others to go. Yah shit weather sucks (and it wasn't) but once you hook a fish all that goes away sea sickness to.

    Have had epic Albie fishing in shit house and no one seemed to care on a sportie. Indian to be exact.

    And it does depend on the persons comfort level and how they handle the sea state
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
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  13. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Most of the boats are still targeting the yellowfin right around clemente. The aztec just went long because it was a big bluefin or bust type trip. The captain had not seen or heard of much sign of big fish around clemente recently. He did have a report from 3 days earlier of big bluefin out by the mushroom and he really liked the temp charts out there. He did state that we would not be driving past smaller fish if we found them. Just that we were going where he thought we had the best chance of a big bluefin. 4 other boats fishing off clemente had between 80 and 137 yellowfin. So I laugh at so many of the weather experts on here.
     
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  14. ZZZZZ

    ZZZZZ natural born jig slingers

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    Roger that. Thanks for the correction

    I mixed up the pacific queens 2.5 day report where they started day two at 120 miles for limits of yft, 60 ball slappers, and 50 yt with this thread. But the smaller grade yfts for the PQ. Stoked the closer yfts are slugs 25-50lbs and also fatter then the ridge yft on LR boats. 25-50lb fish is excellent local grade

    This thread made me go cross eyed so I skim read most of it and got confused like allot of other people LOL so now I know how confusion happens to alot of people who are not close by the action. When living in SD I'm on it

    Anyways it all depends on how bad someone wants a tunafish

    Brace yourself :D the fat lady is getting ready
     
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  15. Paddyman

    Paddyman Member

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    You blew it.
     
  16. Ryan Gay

    Ryan Gay Member

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    Joe Ski
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    I am booked on the O95 and it will go for sure if there are enough passengers. With the possible weather comes the possibility of fewer rods at the rail. Anyone else wanna try it? Leaves Wednesday night at 8.
     
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  17. carterantebi

    carterantebi I hate fishing

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    I've got the whole week of Thanksgiving to myself so I'm going out at least once no matter what. None of this NWS bullshit.
     
  18. ZZZZZ

    ZZZZZ natural born jig slingers

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    Not really. The meat was long and I was gunning for people to go that day :D

    The only people who blew it :) are those who were claiming it was going to blow and those who wait to pounce just to make others look bad :elephant:

    Or did the cancellars blow it :eek:
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
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  19. Paisan

    Paisan Member

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    I stayed in port only to learn it was actually pretty nice on saturday. Wish I had gone, but I've paid the price too many times for not respecting the forecasts, and frankly, don't care enough about fishing anymore to risk taking a beating. Oh well... maybe this weekend.
     
  20. MYNomad

    MYNomad Heading South

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    Yep, there are two ways to go wrong -- stay in when you didn't need to and go out when you wish you didn't. Your boat is big and sea worthy enough that safety doesn't really come into it -- only a question of discomfort in marginal conditions. What I am learning to do is to not let a bad forecast stop me if there is reason to expect potentially decent conditions. Instead, I make a plan B. So, a trip planned for Cortez may turn into an island trip. An island trip may turn into front side only, or maybe even only 1/2 day in the bay. But by seeing the conditions first hand and selecting between alternate plans accordingly, fewer opportunities are missed.
     
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