predicting Bluefin and Albacore bite

Discussion in 'San Diego Long Range fishing Reports' started by moranmd, Dec 10, 2013.

  1. moranmd

    moranmd Newbie

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    Hey, folks. I am finally taking my first SD long-range trip next summer (7 days on RP). Looking back at old reports I see that some years there are bluefin and albacore, some years only one, or some years almost none of either. What drives those population fluctuations. I know that the northern Pacific is affected heavily by El Niño/La Niña events, so maybe that is one factor. Any predictions for next sumer. Thanks
     
  2. Ol Pedro

    Ol Pedro Newbie

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    It's water temp. and bait as much as anything else.
     
  3. bbuck

    bbuck Well-Known "Member"

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    Last year we saw the return of Blue Fin in a very big way, the bite started in June and continued well into Oct. with some being caught in early Nov. The sea conditions were not much different than any other year. The difference seemed to be due to the commercial fleet backing off, and not throwing nets around everything in sight. I predict more of the same next year, just more big fish. It would be great to see the Albacore come back, and it will happen, but who knows when.
     
  4. wils

    wils lazy-ass well known "member"

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    sardines for BFT and anchovies for albies.
    lots of dines means lots of BFT and stray albies.
    lots of anchovies mean lots of ablies and stray BFT.
    7 days means youve got lots more other species to catch out there.
     
  5. karlk1125

    karlk1125 Well-Known "Member"

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    I read something interesting...but along the california current theres a strong inshore upwelling along points of the coast, and a weaker offshore upwelling. It was found that during periods that the offshore upwelling was stronger the population of sardines would flourish, and if the inshore was stronger the anchovies would flourish. Up here in NorCal we havnt had big schools of anchovies in recent years, but this year we had a ridiculously strong upwelling. The water temp off bodega bay got down to 43.5 degrees at one point in May. And guess what...some of the biggest schools of anchovies in recent years appeared off of monterey bay in the fall this year. Maybe the anchovies will start coming back around.
     
  6. IronMikeAC

    IronMikeAC Well-Known "Member"

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    Forget predictions. You've done the important things already by booking a good length trip on a leading boat. When is it? 2013 was the BEST Bluefin year of fishing Ive had in my 20 years in LR. The commercial fleet hit their self imposed quota by mid-July. Contrary to popular opinion this made it harder to find the BFT since they call in the LR boats on fish are not targeting (under 80 lbs). Stlll, I caught BFT in June, July and September. Some huge BFT (in rod/reel terms) up to 180 lbs were also caught in these months. Albies?, plenty in Oregon and Washington, so the are not extinct, just not in a Mexico/SoCal cycle right now. They'll be back.

    September also saw great YT fishing at Cedros and some insane WFO YFT fishing on 30-40 lb YFT. Watch this GoPro video from our 7 day on the Independence last year and get stoked!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohYkFIE9Ex4

    IM
     
  7. invictus

    invictus AVD

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    No way to know, just go fishing.
     
  8. stairman

    stairman ......

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    My prediction. None to very few albacore next year....good to excellent blue fin...in other words just like this year.yelow tail never really leave the area the boat fish on seven day yrips so you should have a shot at great to excellent yt fishing.The food will be great...some asshole will get drunk.....and there are very good chances of waves.
     
  9. afraser

    afraser I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Both bluefin and albacore seem to return to where they've been. So no albies unless some event pushes them closer to shore. But the bft will be back, and bigger. I'm thinking the fact that they have the bft in pens is attracting more bft and those will return each year they aren't caught. So I'd expect to see a lot more 80-120lb bft next year, but the seiners might like those.
     
  10. catchabigone

    catchabigone Fair is fair. Donate Life. Be an organ donor

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    My best guess is if you want albacore go north young man go north. Norcal to the Columbia river 20 to 60 miles offshore, july thru october. as many as you want if you hit it right. It's just like long range only you are in small boats and come back to shore every night.
     
  11. moranmd

    moranmd Newbie

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    Thanks for the video. If my trip is anything like that I should be pretty happy! :)
     
  12. dozzer

    dozzer Catskinner

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  13. Lake

    Lake I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    [/QUOTE]The Radiation from Japan is affecting all fish in the Pacific Ocean !!!! . If you catch and eat any and all fish you are risking thyroid cancer and a host of other related Problems from the contaminated water coming from japan !! Every time you put a fork full of fish caught off of Southern California in your mouth you are playing Russian roulette !! Just Saying [/COLOR]:Dynamite:[/QUOTE]

    What is your background that your advice supercedes all known medical knowledge, facts, and advice?
     
  14. bluewaterbum

    bluewaterbum Well-Known "Member"

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    Last I read there is no health risk in eating BFT and all studies so far have only found a 3% increase radiation over normal amounts in the tuna we eat now.

    The Radiation from Japan is affecting all fish in the Pacific Ocean !!!! . If you catch and eat any and all fish you are risking thyroid cancer and a host of other related Problems from the contaminated water coming from japan !! Every time you put a fork full of fish caught off of Southern California in your mouth you are playing Russian roulette !! Just Saying
    :Dynamite:[/QUOTE]
     
  15. TUNA VIKING

    TUNA VIKING TIGHT LINES..............

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    The last report I read on the radiation issue gave the amount of fish you would have to eat to see any kind of measurable effects and it was not possible to eat that much tuna if you tried.
     
  16. moranmd

    moranmd Newbie

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    I checked out the scientific papers written on the subject and it appears that levels are very low. If you ate fish every day (not advised anyway because of the mercury) you would still get less radiation exposure than a dental x-ray. Also, the radiation in question is mostly cesium, so would not affect the thyroid specifically (radioactive iodine does that). Maybe you want to brush up on the science before you get into scare-mongering mode.
     
  17. Corndog

    Corndog Landlocked

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    I predict some 200+lbers will hit the scales next year. Better think twice about leaving the 80lb at home next year
     
  18. Anglewood

    Anglewood Up to no good...

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    That's a prediction that all of us can get behind! :D

    -Connor
     
  19. invictus

    invictus AVD

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    Hoping your right on!
     

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