Pacific Warming Does Not Meet El Nino Criteria

BiggestT

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Pacific Warming Doesn’t Meet El Nino Criteria, U.S. Says
By Brian K. Sullivan Jul 10, 2014 6:49 AM PT

A weather-changing El Nino has yet to develop in the Pacific Ocean, according to government forecasters are who maintaining a “watch” initiated in March.
The chances that the warming of the equatorial Pacific will form in the next two months are 70 percent, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. The possibility one will happen by fall or early winter is 80 percent.
“We’re not barreling into an El Nino,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the center in College Park, Maryland.
El Nino can crimp the Atlantic hurricane season, bring more rain across the southern U.S. during the winter and warm some northern states. It can affect rubber, sugar, coffee and natural gas markets worldwide.
The phenomenon, which occurs every three to five years, often causes heavier rains from southern Brazil to Argentina and drier conditions across Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
In order for an El Nino to get under way, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures have to touch off a corresponding change in the atmosphere.
“We’re still waiting for the atmosphere and the ocean to become friends,” L’Heureux said. “The atmosphere is very standoffish at the moment.”
Earlier this month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also didn’t find the corresponding atmosphere change to support an El Nino declaration.
The next U.S. El Nino update will be Aug. 7.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at [email protected] Charlotte Porter, Richard Stubbe
 
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bmachale

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Maybe, maybe not. It is only 10 days into July and just about 70 or over in all the off shore areas. Seems like an El Nino to me. Call it a banana if you want, just send me YF, Dorado, and big eye
 
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BiggestT

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I don't care one way or another, except hoping that we get some rain out of it. The way things are playing out, there's little chance I'll be doing saltwater fishing this year. Just too much on my plate personally, then add in grandson #1 due next week and then my older sister being diagnosed with double breast cancer and priorities have been changed.
 
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MikeyLikesIt

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for every report of "El Nino fizzling out", there is a report of "El Nino gaining strength". :shake: heck, who do you listen to?

what ever happened to true science? ....meaning reporting the facts, regardless of the political implications? Gawd.....


Sorry to hear about your sis Steve.....on a positive note, they have come a long, long ways with treatment of breast cancer. Hopefully, it was diagnosed early. (My Mom has just about beat it....and it had metastisized.)
 
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abdiver7777

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I also am hearing that the central/south American water temps are falling so El Nino is collapsing
 
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BiggestT

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for every report of "El Nino fizzling out", there is a report of "El Nino gaining strength". :shake: heck, who do you listen to?

what ever happened to true science? ....meaning reporting the facts, regardless of the political implications? Gawd.....


Sorry to hear about your sis Steve.....on a positive note, they have come a long, long ways with treatment of breast cancer. Hopefully, it was diagnosed early. (My Mom has just about beat it....and it had metastisized.)

Thanks. At the moment they're classifying it as Stage II. Different types in each side, but apparently slow growing and readily targeted and treatable. She's a nurse herself, but that doesn't stop her from running the gamut of emotions. I have my wife going with her on the consultation appointments. Just trying to keep her focused and positive. She can look to my 92 year old mother-in-law who was daignosed with uterine cancer in 1982 and was given 2 months to live. She's still with us and doing well for her age.
 
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tap

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For two weeks (June 25-July 6, 2014) I took sea surface temps in Panama (Tuna Coast to Hannibal Bank Region) and found them to be 8 to 12 degrees higher than normal (86-90 degrees vs. 78-80 degrees). Small sample but indicates very abnormal sea conditions with very warm water. That's all I can say.
 
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