Not so good news on El Nino

Valkyrie

Coxswain
Sep 3, 2003
154
51
Channel Islands Harbor Calif.
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Name
Frank Sullivan
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35ft Viking Sportfisher
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 August 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis:The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 September 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].
Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather ServiceCollege Park, MD 20740
 
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Corndog

Landlocked
Sep 22, 2009
4,854
1,611
Northern Colorado
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Jason Jones ( Lone Shark)
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Century 1801, Hobie PA14 & SoA
I believe in 82 the waters backed off and then came back full force and brought forth the best fishing on record in socal. Fingers are crossed fishing is still hot in September. I'm counting the days
 
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MikeyLikesIt

did you say FISHING ???
Feb 24, 2003
10,295
4,036
East-a-La-Mesa, baby!
Name
starts with an "M".....
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#1 boat scrubber - Team Madrugador
I'm thinking T-day tuna this year.....
 
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sitonmyface

SEXNOW
Oct 20, 2008
1,109
212
San Marcos
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Brandon
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Sportboat
I wouldn't pay attention to what these overpaid scientists say one only needs to look at the fishing, the fish are telling the real story.
 
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Paddyman1

Considering the outstanding fishing that started back in April, we really should have no complaints. Typical summer fishing conditions will prevail through September and sometimes into October. We've had a few hurricanes come off the Mexican coast recently and with more that may come, comes the warm water, and warm water pelagic fish.
 
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PCH

El Nino 2015!!!!!!
Jul 14, 2008
2,145
1,124
North San Diego
Name
Paul
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Gregor 20
I'm now hoping this whole warm water, incredible fishing is from global warming. That way we can expect this trend for years to come. :)
 
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mullet

Metal Fabricator
Jan 10, 2006
4,475
4,409
Brookings Oregon
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mike
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19"Gregor
I don't think the fish have been monitoring these scientific reports.:gaygroup:
 
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Rabid Fish

Member
Jun 27, 2004
745
572
33
Southern California
Name
Alex
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26'
Things are still totally up in the air El Nino-wise. From most likely to least likely I would say: small-moderate El Nino, no El Nino, Multi-year moderate event, large event.

But warm water and great fishing doesn't mean it's an El Nino. I think I'll listen to these "overpaid scientists" (lol) and the maps and tables they produce before I listen to guys who forecast major trans-oceanic weather events based on their local landings' fishcounts.

I should say though that going along with that last paragraph, no El Nino isn't necessarily bad news. El Ninos have several bad to catastrophic effects. Most of these aren't in our backyard but some are. There's a lot more storm activity. Often times the reef life suffers, and especially local abalone populations suffer. Personally, I'd rather have great fishing and not have a true El Nino event. Kind of like what we're having now.
 
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gecsr1

Plain Jane Rods...Hobby Rod Builder
Jul 15, 2005
14,682
3,931
Poway Ca
Name
Gary
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No Boat Now
Well gee who cares....
When we have tuna fishing this good in local waters......

It is what is it is..... ( as far as fishing goes...)



But with lots of rain this winter ..
 
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BiggestT

I Post A Lot But I Can't Edit This
Sep 8, 2004
12,133
8,155
Fullerton
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SM
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Salsipuedes & Czech Mate
The only thing that really matters out of this is that we get a good rain total this upcoming winter. We're in a world of hurt if we don't.
 
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bajaandy

Condition One
Jun 13, 2008
733
293
Escondido
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Andy
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Parker 2530 "WET-O's"
The only thing that really matters out of this is that we get a good rain total this upcoming winter. We're in a world of hurt if we don't.

Exactly! If we don't get a good El Nino, then we won't get the associated warm, WET winter which the entire western part of the US desperately needs. Is fishing incredible right now? Sure it is. But that don't mean a thing towards easing drought conditions. The Sierra Nevada had only 20% of it's average snowfall last year. That's bad juju.
 
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