I'm paying extra special attention to the eventual path of this one...I have a 5-day trip on the SOA leaving Sunday! I'll post a link to my weekly video weather update, which will have a lot of stuff regarding Norbert, late Wednesday night. However, when dealing with the forecast track of a tropical system, there is certainly nothing that is a "given" except where the storm is right now. The average NHC position forecast error is 200 miles 5 days out! That's actually a lot better than it used to be...
Here is the link to my video forecast: http://www.thefishingweatherman.com/index.php/videos/37-weekly-video-update Couldn't get the audio to work this week (it always seems to be something) but the data shows some possibilities. The rocks and Mag Bay areas will no be fishable through the weekend, but once this thing clears out, the wind will settle down nicely. It's just figuring out exactly where it's going and how long it will linger! Sometimes there are no clear cut answers when everyone wants them...
Ah man, that no-audio is killing me. Quickly, you have three paths marked: the first shows it coming in at roughly Ensenada, one coming in at roughly Eugenia, and a third (which you've x-ed out) showing it heading WNW, out to sea. Are you saying that modeling shows this thing riding the beach north and making landfall in Baja Norte, NOT following the Marie path WNW? Thanks in advance, have a road trip scheduled. Will of course check NOAA, but like your take.
That's right...the path x-ed out was intended to show that is not a likely track. Even though the potential "paths" are shown, by the time it would get up to the latitude of Ensenada, it's just a remnant low as it continues to weaken in the cooler water. It's warm water from out perspective, but not for a tropical cyclone. At this point (Thursday evening), a number of the models show it dissipating in an area near Guadalupe Island on Monday into Tuesday. That would be a much better outcome for those of us taking trips south this coming weekend/week. I have attached a close up of the official NHC forecast track as of Thursday night. The last two positions show a post-tropical remnant low for Monday and Tuesday 5pm.
This Storm isn't looking too well for the trips leaving this weekend/early next week. Now its a category 3- winds 120 and its looking to block Cedros and points south based on current track.
Good Luck to everyone.
not so much "staying close to home" just no sense driving into a hurricane. stay on the outside and I would guess a run for the rocks, if it blows out soon enuff, someone's got to take a look with longer trips coming up/ Where did the PS get all those wahoo anyway?
Mr. Dunn is leaving today on the Spirit of Adventure on a 5 day according to a report from Thursday from Phil Freidman. No reports for the next few days. I leave on the Indy next Saturday so it will be interesting to see if we go to the Rocks or not. Water will have settled by then and no traffic...could be good?!
From the RP Facebook page:
"Hello everyone; Reporting from the Royal Polaris, we started our morning West of Catalina Island. We see signs of Yellowfin tuna, but so far we have only landed a few Yellowfin for our efforts. We will continue our search for them, and will report later on our Web-page. So until then wish us luck. The R/p crew."