Marine weather this weekend?

jdvarnold

Newbie
May 23, 2022
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31
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Jon varnold
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Key west
First time poster! Heading out of Huntington Friday with plans to fish Catalina Friday and Saturday, coming back Sunday morning.

The marine forecast doesn’t look great to me for the ride back but I am also not super experienced in reading them.

Any thoughts on what it will be like coming back from Catalina Sunday, given the swell?
 
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Garrison

Garrison
May 21, 2008
571
610
Temecula
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Garrison
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Mikelson 43’
What type/size boat are you on?
Where are you looking at the weather?

Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon attached. But this is also an extended forecast, we have all seen them change rapidly.

Garrison

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jdvarnold

Newbie
May 23, 2022
2
0
31
Orange County
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Jon varnold
Boat Name
Key west
We are in a 24 ft Striper. I was looking at windy and the NOAA website. Most concern is the wave interval as I think Sunday it said 4ft swell at 5 second intervals.
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nefarious235

I Post A Lot But I Can't Edit This
Aug 1, 2008
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Its going to be nautical
 
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Garrison

Garrison
May 21, 2008
571
610
Temecula
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Garrison
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Mikelson 43’
Absent the effect of wind and wind waves, in a boat your size and as a general guide. I usually divide the wave interval by the wave height. If it is near or below 2 then it’s probably not a great day to be on the water. Also have to consider the direction and the boat design. It is following you home.

Windy is showing 4’ at 9 seconds on Sunday, so (2.25 on the above guideline). That is certainly doable in a safe boat and a captain that is comfortable with their abilities, but doesn’t leave much room for error or a change in weather. Extended forecast shows it doesn’t get better until Wednesday, could turn into a longer trip than intended.

If you were in a 24’ Radon, probably a different calculation.

I would keep watching it, Sunday is still a good bit out.

Garrison
 
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MYNomad

Heading South
Dec 12, 2007
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Rick
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I didn't study any of the forecasts above but did see references to 4' to 6' and 6' to 8' seas. My best advice is to make your first trip in good forecast conditions (not marginal), and use that (instead of advice from internet guys, some of whom exaggerate the conditions that their boats can comfortably handle). Also, if your boat does not have a self-bailing cockpit, or if it has low freeboard, especially at the transom, you should avoid any conditions that can put any water beyond spray into your cockpit. That can be deadly, particularly in a "smaller" boat (and I recognize that 24' is quite big compared to much of what you will see at Catalina -- heck I used to take my 13.5' runabout with a Montgomery Wards 35hp outboard), where stability when swamped is a real issue.
 
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Garrison

Garrison
May 21, 2008
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610
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Garrison
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Mikelson 43’
The island forecasts takes a bit of work to decipher. You are using the correct tools to do it. The zone forecast (the referenced to 6’-8’) takes into account the outer waters. Pt. Conception and the Channel Islands catch and block a lot of horrible weather. It is not uncommon to be small craft advisory out there and pleasant in the shadow during the channel crossing. Or when offshore fishing, to be calm waters until you come out of the shadow and see some spooky looking freight trains rolling through. NOAA’s point and click function used along your intended route is a good tool. They are usually the source for all the other apps. Windy follows there forecasts in near real time.

As pointed out the 2x or greater rule of thumb I referenced doesn’t take into account a lot of variables. Boat, wind, direction, experience etc. One that we sometimes fail to point out beyond safety, is comfort/enjoyment. Doable and why am I doing it are two different things. I have been chased home by some large small interval swells. I didn’t choose to at the time and with that experience in mind, I certainly avoid it when possible.

If you are questioning it, it is questionable. Poor weather on a small boat will certainly make you wish you were doing another recreational activity. The forecast downgraded from last night. Keep an eye on it and don’t force it because “it was planned”. I agree that marginal is not the time for firsts or fun.

Garrison

7DC51E80-8656-4E31-8141-AE35A9FAB64D.png
 
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vipertom1970

Tuna Sniper
Oct 26, 2015
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tom
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I look at Windy for wind and SailFlow for wave height and wave interval. I never go if the wave interval is 2x less than wave height. Example 2 foot wave at 4 seconds is less desirable than 4' wave at 12 seconds and 12knot wind max for me. I have a 23' pilot house.

Sunday looks rough for my liking and if it's me, I would rather cruise back Sat night with calm ocean and sleep at the marina.
 
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IronMikeAC

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Aug 2, 2013
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torrance, ca
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The island forecasts takes a bit of work to decipher. You are using the correct tools to do it. The zone forecast (the referenced to 6’-8’) takes into account the outer waters. Pt. Conception and the Channel Islands catch and block a lot of horrible weather. It is not uncommon to be small craft advisory out there and pleasant in the shadow during the channel crossing. Or when offshore fishing, to be calm waters until you come out of the shadow and see some spooky looking freight trains rolling through. NOAA’s point and click function used along your intended route is a good tool. They are usually the source for all the other apps. Windy follows there forecasts in near real time.

As pointed out the 2x or greater rule of thumb I referenced doesn’t take into account a lot of variables. Boat, wind, direction, experience etc. One that we sometimes fail to point out beyond safety, is comfort/enjoyment. Doable and why am I doing it are two different things. I have been chased home by some large small interval swells. I didn’t choose to at the time and with that experience in mind, I certainly avoid it when possible.

If you are questioning it, it is questionable. Poor weather on a small boat will certainly make you wish you were doing another recreational activity. The forecast downgraded from last night. Keep an eye on it and don’t force it because “it was planned”. I agree that marginal is not the time for firsts or fun.

Garrison

View attachment 1386737
What app is that
 
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Bend Session

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  • Jan 3, 2017
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    stay the night at 2 harbors - heading back from the west end of CAT to HB early in the AM would be a better call - weather should be good at 6am to head back - dont wait till 1pm on Sunday.
     
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    Tunahead

    Long Time Tuna Abused Member
  • Aug 11, 2006
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    First time poster! Heading out of Huntington Friday with plans to fish Catalina Friday and Saturday, coming back Sunday morning.

    The marine forecast doesn’t look great to me for the ride back but I am also not super experienced in reading them.

    Any thoughts on what it will be like coming back from Catalina Sunday, given the swell?
    Looks OK until Sunday night 10-20kt winds.
    USE This Link/site for up to the min. info.
    GL Fishing
     
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