The island forecasts takes a bit of work to decipher. You are using the correct tools to do it. The zone forecast (the referenced to 6’-8’) takes into account the outer waters. Pt. Conception and the Channel Islands catch and block a lot of horrible weather. It is not uncommon to be small craft advisory out there and pleasant in the shadow during the channel crossing. Or when offshore fishing, to be calm waters until you come out of the shadow and see some spooky looking freight trains rolling through. NOAA’s point and click function used along your intended route is a good tool. They are usually the source for all the other apps. Windy follows there forecasts in near real time.
As pointed out the 2x or greater rule of thumb I referenced doesn’t take into account a lot of variables. Boat, wind, direction, experience etc. One that we sometimes fail to point out beyond safety, is comfort/enjoyment. Doable and why am I doing it are two different things. I have been chased home by some large small interval swells. I didn’t choose to at the time and with that experience in mind, I certainly avoid it when possible.
If you are questioning it, it is questionable. Poor weather on a small boat will certainly make you wish you were doing another recreational activity. The forecast downgraded from last night. Keep an eye on it and don’t force it because “it was planned”. I agree that marginal is not the time for firsts or fun.
Garrison
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