Is it time for Padres to wheel and deal?

Discussion in 'Sports Forum' started by hotrod, Jun 23, 2011.

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Whom should the Padres trade?

Poll closed Aug 7, 2011.
  1. Heath Bell

    1 vote(s)
    14.3%
  2. Mike Adams

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Ryan Ludwick

    4 vote(s)
    57.1%
  4. Chad Qualls

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Someone Else

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. All of them

    2 vote(s)
    28.6%
  1. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    Analysis: Time for Padres to wheel and deal?
    By Bill Center UT 5:52 p.m., June 23, 2011

    Last season the Padres won 90 games and didn’t reach the playoffs.

    This season it might take only 85 victories to win the tepid National League West, but hopes of this being a playoff team have just about disappeared.

    To reach 90 wins this year, the Padres would have to go 58-28 over the final 86 games, a .674 winning percentage in a sport where only one team is even above .600. To reach 85 wins, likely the bottom-line figure to win the division, the Padres would have to go 53-33 (.616).

    Since the Padres have shown an inability to win at Petco Park (where they open a six-game homestand tonight with the first of three games against Atlanta), put together an offense or string together victories — their longest winning streak this season is four — the chances of the Padres turning their season totally around seem slim.

    So where do they go from here:

    Muddle on?

    Or blow it up?

    Padres CEO Jeff Moorad and General Manager Jed Hoyer will probably make that decision over the next two weeks.

    “Given the division, if we were to get real hot over the next two weeks, a final decision might be delayed a week or two,” a Padres executive said recently. “But the day is coming.”

    Likely sooner than July 31, the non-waiver trade deadline.

    If the Padres decide the future takes precedent over the now, they have three players they don’t control past this season who interest other teams — closer Heath Bell, left fielder Ryan Ludwick and reliever Chad Qualls.

    And each are attractive to legitimate playoff contenders.

    Texas, St. Louis and Philadelphia and the Angels are in need of a closer.

    Cincinnati and Philadelphia have specifically mentioned Ludwick in their hopes of adding a run-producing, right-handed outfield bat.

    Set-up relievers are always in demand down the stretch.

    The Padres probably won’t move the younger players they control. And given the upper level of their farm system, they probably won’t move shortstop Jason Bartlett or second baseman Orlando Hudson — both of whom are contracted through 2012 — unless a top middle infield prospect is coming in return.

    But the Padres are on the brink of becoming sellers. Sad thing is, beyond Bell, Ludwick and Qualls, the Padres don’t have much to sell.

    Clubs that might have been interested in Aaron Harang have to be turned off by his broken foot. Dustin Moseley’s non-pitching shoulder raises similar issues.

    Which brings us back to Bell, Ludwick and Qualls. The best guess is that all will be gone by July 31. A look at the three:

    Bell (2-3, 19 saves, 2.70 ERA): Now 33, Bell would love to remain a Padre. He and his family love San Diego. He would probably accept under $27 million for a three-year deal. But the last thing a rebuilding team needs is a closer. Besides, Mike Adams deserves an opportunity. At the moment, Bell is still owed around $4 million this season. He would bring at least two top prospects.

    Ludwick (.256, nine homers, 45 RBI): Want intrigue? What about a package deal of Ludwick and Bell to the Phillies, who, because of the uncertainty of Brad Lidge and the hole left around Ryan Howard by the departure of Jayson Werth, are seeking a closer and a run-producing, right-handed hitting outfielder. The Phillies have a lot of young prospects, including outfielder Domonic Brown. Like Bell, Ludwick is still owed around $4 million.

    Qualls (4-3, 2.43 ERA): The versatile and durable right-hander has rebuilt his career as a Padre. He can go more than an inning or take on a tough hitter in a situation.

    In addition to looking outside the organization, the Padres will likely be looking inside. Expect to see Kyle Blanks back in left field by the end of the year, sooner if Ludwick is traded.

    The Padres will probably take a late-season look at starting pitchers Anthony Bass and Casey Kelly as well as a more concentrated look at second baseman Logan Forsythe.

    The future will include making tough contractual decisions on some of the franchise’s homegrown players, notably third baseman Chase Headley and right fielder Will Venable.

    Headley will likely value out at more than $3 million next season in his second year of arbitration. Does the run production warrant that? And Venable has been a major first-half disappointment.
     
  2. Aggro

    Aggro Keepin my pimp hand strong!

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    They usually start trading their best players about now.
     
  3. Vermonster

    Vermonster Well-Known "Member"

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    I think it's more than one, but not all, so I couldn't make a choice. I think they will deal Bell and Ludwick.

    Adams will slide into Bell's spot. As for Headley, I am starting to think of him as a Sean Burroughs. He's just going to end up being a slap hitter who gets on base all the time. That's okay, except that you want power at that position, especially if you lack it in the rest of the lineup too.
     
  4. Sherm

    Sherm aka: The Sherminator

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    What best players?
     
  5. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    Sherm youre kidding me right? Any team and baseball would want Heath Bell and Mike Adams. And by the way, rumor has it that Ryan Ludwick and Chad Qualls are in demand too. I think they will keep Mike Adams though.

    Mods when you get a chance, make a change on this thread to allow multiple choices. As you know, once you hit the enter button you cant go back and make changes.
     
  6. Vermonster

    Vermonster Well-Known "Member"

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    Way to acknowledge my post, without actually acknowledging me Mike..... ;)
     
  7. ConSeaMate

    ConSeaMate Legend in my own mind

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    Why would any team want Ludwick?......he has T-Rex arms........
     
  8. Gil Marlin

    Gil Marlin World Peace? Visualize Using Your Turn Indicator

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    Trade them all and get 20 AAA replacements...
     
  9. mc08066

    mc08066 Newbie

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    It's not the trading part that's bad, it's the results that have not been good for the Padres. Peavy trade comes to mind. I would not give up Bell unless they had a wink wink discussion about him coming back next year following Free Agency. Ludwich is okay and would trade him depending on interest. Brad Hawpe is he still with the team? He sucks. When will people learn that a .275 batting average at Coors is like a .245 batting average elsewhere. Biggest mistakes this year is when Hoyer did not sign Jerry Hairston and a decent catcher like Yorb.. Tony Gwynn Jr also has looked pretty good this month. Makes me think his shoulder was not right last year. My fear is the Padres trade Ludwich and bring in a Brad Hawpe type next year because they are cheap as shit.:shithappens:

    Jimmy Greene
     
  10. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    I know they are 6-1 in their last 7...but its still too late. They could have gotten back into it but they dug themselves a hole and they are too far back....they have too many games to catch up and they wont be able to do it. So I say trade Bell, Ludwick, and Qualls and hopefully they will get some good young ballplayers in return to rebuild. I do think that Jed Hoyer's group will draft better than Tower's regime (which was a joke in the draft).
     
  11. Vermonster

    Vermonster Well-Known "Member"

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    Even though you are ignoring me Mike, I am going to continue to comment on your posts. ;)

    Did you see who was named player of the week in the Northwest League? Spangenberg......... hit .394 (13-33) w/ 11 RBI & 12 BB in 10 G........

    Things can only go up from here......
     
  12. Sherm

    Sherm aka: The Sherminator

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    Yep....i was kidding. They have one or two good players.
     
  13. Saluki

    Saluki .

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    Pads are a 2nd half of the season time of a team.
    They'll win the Division.
     
  14. Vermonster

    Vermonster Well-Known "Member"

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    Well, they only need to go 47-34 over the second half to match St. Louis' championship season record.... Totally achievable..... ;)
     
  15. Tues

    Tues Not my job...

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  16. Aggro

    Aggro Keepin my pimp hand strong!

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    Right on sheddddule


    They aren’t very good right now. What’s it going to be like come August, after they’ve traded two of their most productive players — and that would be outfielder Ryan Ludwick and closer Heath Bell
     
  17. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    Right on shedduule <---like the Brits say. LOL
     
  18. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    7-1 in their last 8 now...they are playing good right now. Can they still make a run? Who knows... The friggen Giants won 7 in a row around the same time too :shake:
     
  19. mc08066

    mc08066 Newbie

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    As far as Towers drafting players, there is one area I actually think he does not get enough credit which is pitchers. As far as position players, they sucked. But I also think Towers hands were tied when drafting position players in the first round. Matt Bush comes to mind. Hoyer at this point has not really shown me much in his trades. All I see is that the quality of arms keeps getting traded or not resigned after the only year playing here. I seem to remember my thoughts on Hawpe at the beginning of the season. Unfortunately I wished I was wrong.
     
  20. hotrod

    hotrod El Capitan

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    Towers has done ok with the Pitching draft...Peavy, Latos, Stauffer, & B Law come to mind. Towers is great at wheeling and dealing for pitchers, theres no doubt about it. He can find some gems and he did with AZ too.
     

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