Analysis: Time for Padres to wheel and deal? By Bill Center UT 5:52 p.m., June 23, 2011 Last season the Padres won 90 games and didnt reach the playoffs. This season it might take only 85 victories to win the tepid National League West, but hopes of this being a playoff team have just about disappeared. To reach 90 wins this year, the Padres would have to go 58-28 over the final 86 games, a .674 winning percentage in a sport where only one team is even above .600. To reach 85 wins, likely the bottom-line figure to win the division, the Padres would have to go 53-33 (.616). Since the Padres have shown an inability to win at Petco Park (where they open a six-game homestand tonight with the first of three games against Atlanta), put together an offense or string together victories their longest winning streak this season is four the chances of the Padres turning their season totally around seem slim. So where do they go from here: Muddle on? Or blow it up? Padres CEO Jeff Moorad and General Manager Jed Hoyer will probably make that decision over the next two weeks. Given the division, if we were to get real hot over the next two weeks, a final decision might be delayed a week or two, a Padres executive said recently. But the day is coming. Likely sooner than July 31, the non-waiver trade deadline. If the Padres decide the future takes precedent over the now, they have three players they dont control past this season who interest other teams closer Heath Bell, left fielder Ryan Ludwick and reliever Chad Qualls. And each are attractive to legitimate playoff contenders. Texas, St. Louis and Philadelphia and the Angels are in need of a closer. Cincinnati and Philadelphia have specifically mentioned Ludwick in their hopes of adding a run-producing, right-handed outfield bat. Set-up relievers are always in demand down the stretch. The Padres probably wont move the younger players they control. And given the upper level of their farm system, they probably wont move shortstop Jason Bartlett or second baseman Orlando Hudson both of whom are contracted through 2012 unless a top middle infield prospect is coming in return. But the Padres are on the brink of becoming sellers. Sad thing is, beyond Bell, Ludwick and Qualls, the Padres dont have much to sell. Clubs that might have been interested in Aaron Harang have to be turned off by his broken foot. Dustin Moseleys non-pitching shoulder raises similar issues. Which brings us back to Bell, Ludwick and Qualls. The best guess is that all will be gone by July 31. A look at the three: Bell (2-3, 19 saves, 2.70 ERA): Now 33, Bell would love to remain a Padre. He and his family love San Diego. He would probably accept under $27 million for a three-year deal. But the last thing a rebuilding team needs is a closer. Besides, Mike Adams deserves an opportunity. At the moment, Bell is still owed around $4 million this season. He would bring at least two top prospects. Ludwick (.256, nine homers, 45 RBI): Want intrigue? What about a package deal of Ludwick and Bell to the Phillies, who, because of the uncertainty of Brad Lidge and the hole left around Ryan Howard by the departure of Jayson Werth, are seeking a closer and a run-producing, right-handed hitting outfielder. The Phillies have a lot of young prospects, including outfielder Domonic Brown. Like Bell, Ludwick is still owed around $4 million. Qualls (4-3, 2.43 ERA): The versatile and durable right-hander has rebuilt his career as a Padre. He can go more than an inning or take on a tough hitter in a situation. In addition to looking outside the organization, the Padres will likely be looking inside. Expect to see Kyle Blanks back in left field by the end of the year, sooner if Ludwick is traded. The Padres will probably take a late-season look at starting pitchers Anthony Bass and Casey Kelly as well as a more concentrated look at second baseman Logan Forsythe. The future will include making tough contractual decisions on some of the franchises homegrown players, notably third baseman Chase Headley and right fielder Will Venable. Headley will likely value out at more than $3 million next season in his second year of arbitration. Does the run production warrant that? And Venable has been a major first-half disappointment.