Hurricane season not over yet

vegasandre

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Aug 20, 2010
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Very warm waters still south of Clarion and HB.
Tropical Depression 21 expected to become a strong TS /weak Cat 1 before dissipating after a few days.
Expected to head in the vicinity of the grounds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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vegasandre

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Aug 20, 2010
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Tropical Storm Rick heading towards Hurricane Bank. one of the latest storms to form on record.







144407W5_NL_sm.gif
 
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RichG

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Jan 20, 2007
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Looks like a bumpy ride home for those on the lower banks. Everybody will be trying to get home for Thanksgiving. Our thoughts and prayers are with them to have a safe trip home.
 
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WaaTooSee

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Feb 17, 2003
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as long as it stays the hell away from San Jose Del Cabo, I am fine with it...
 

RichG

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The prediction look like "Rick" is head toward to ridge, for Thanksgiving. I know the Rooster is going to Cabo to drop off people, not sure what day, ? Sunday then back home. All the boats are usually in for Turkey, except maybe the RP. I know they have been out on Turkey day other years. Wish them all a safe trip.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/143446.shtml?5-daynl#contents

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FishRock

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Mar 27, 2013
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Still ain't over.

91 E likley to become a Hurricaine.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/203225.shtml?5-daynl#contents

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 91E) is approaching tropical depression status in the record-warm Pacific waters off the south coast of Mexico, about 425 miles south of Acapulco. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that 91E had a large and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms with a pronounced rotation. The 7 am EST Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 91E would be over record-warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear around 10 knots through Friday, which should allow the storm to develop into Tropical Storm Sandra by Wednesday. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%. The HWRF and GFDL intensity models have consistently shown the potential for this storm to become a hurricane by late in the week. Steering currents favor a path to the west or west-northwest parallel to the coast and far enough offshore to prevent heavy rains in Mexico through Thursday. On Friday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 91E will turn the storm to the north and northeast, and 91E will likely make landfall in Mexico this weekend, passing near the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Those of you planning to spend Thanksgiving weekend in the Cabo San Lucas area you should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting your weather.

If Sandra does form this week, it will join last week's Tropical Storm Rick as one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only five tropical storms form after November 18: December 5, 1983 (Winnie), November 27, 1971 (Sharon), November 27, 1951 (Unnamed), November 20, 2011 (Kenneth), and November 19, 2015 (Rick). None of these storms hit land. If 91E becomes a tropical storm and hits land, it will be the latest landfalling Eastern Pacific storm on record. This year has also beaten the onset year of the 1997-98 El Niño in terms of the span from the earliest to latest tropical cyclone in the Northeast Pacific. The season’s first storm of 2015, Andres, formed on May 28, four days earlier than Andrea in 1997. The last NE Pacific storm of 1997, also named Rick, formed on November 7, although it was followed on December 2 by Tropical Storm Paka in the Central Pacific. (Thanks to WU member Mark Cole for this statistic.)
 

RichG

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Well she has a name, Sandra. The RP is down in the Buffer Zone. They have a few days to fish.


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canyonman

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Well as long as it follows that track the thanksgiving trips should be ok. I'll be on the Indy and we should be in the zone by Tuesday.
 

MikeyLikesIt

did you say F I S H I N G ???
Feb 24, 2003
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shit. I am supposed to be flying down there Thursday through Sunday...

damn Frank! You jinxed yourself!

be safe, my friend.....
 

WaaTooSee

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Thanks Mikey. It looks like it is going to rain like hell on Friday. I have about a 40% chance to look outside on Saturday. I guess I will have to find some other way to get into trouble while down there :)