How bad does weather have to be to cancel?

ShadowX

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Oct 10, 2010
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I think you both dodged a bullet. The storm moved in faster by a few days. Saturday and Sunday are nasty days in terms of the wind. On Monday/Tuesday, the combined waves from the wind and swells is around 7-8 ft at around 12 seconds and the wind dies down a bit. Its definitely not calm, but not horrifying as Sunday.

Again, never trust weather reports 7 days out, because the time when the weather hits would change by a few days. Its only reasonably accurate about 3 days out.

In case you don't know, there are several prediction models. The ECMWF is reasonably accurate and has been used to track hurricane paths. They have prediction models up a week away, but results are only very good within a day or two.

The "NAM" model is better in terms of details. You can see the blue areas on the farside of the islands while other models show same color around it. It is very accurate within a day or two. The model only predicts up to 3 days ahead because they know any prediction after that is pure bullshit at this level of detail.

I usually use the ECMWF model to look at what is coming ahead 7 days out. I know the maps are not accurate after 3 days, but it gives me an idea of what is coming up in the week. Once I get close to the fishing day, I switch over to the NAM model to get a much better detail of whether I should cancel the trip since I'm on a private boat.


NAM prediction model: (red box shows how to change the prediction models and the yellow arrow shows the detailed wind pattern around the islands):
1631418620992.png



Saturday:
1631418750032.png


Sunday:
1631417959728.png


Monday/Tuesday:
1631417989030.png
 
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dalurker

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I think you both dodged a bullet. The storm moved in faster by a few days. Saturday and Sunday are nasty days in terms of the wind. On Monday/Tuesday, the combined waves from the wind and swells is around 7-8 ft at around 12 seconds and the wind dies down a bit. Its definitely not calm, but not horrifying as Sunday.

Again, never trust weather reports 7 days out, because the time when the weather hits would change by a few days. Its only reasonably accurate about 3 days out.

In case you don't know, there are several prediction models. The ECMWF is reasonably accurate and has been used to track hurricane paths. They have prediction models up a week away, but results are only very good within a day or two.

The "NAM" model is better in terms of details. You can see the blue areas on the farside of the islands while other models show same color around it. It is very accurate within a day or two. The model only predicts up to 3 days ahead because they know any prediction after that is pure bullshit at this level of detail.

I usually use the ECMWF model to look at what is coming ahead 7 days out. I know the maps are not accurate after 3 days, but it gives me an idea of what is coming up in the week. Once I get close to the fishing day, I switch over to the NAM model to get a much better detail of whether I should cancel the trip since I'm on a private boat.


NAM prediction model: (red box shows how to change the prediction models and the yellow arrow shows the detailed wind pattern around the islands):
View attachment 1317697


Saturday:
View attachment 1317698

Sunday:
View attachment 1317694

Monday/Tuesday:
View attachment 1317695
and here's the link to that:
Windy.com
 
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ShadowX

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If you ever wonder why the wind prediction sometimes doesn't match the conditions when you are out there, its mainly due to the different models used for analysis.

For instance, in the same spot below in the same day and time, the ECMWF model predicts at 8 mph while the NAM model is around 17 mph. Each model uses its own set of data points. The NAM model take in more factors like terrain and the funneling of air through mountains and other terrain features at a higher detail.

Based on my experience with looking at the prediction and the actual conditions experienced while I'm fishing, I trust the NAM model more within a day or two of the fishing trip. Its a bit more conservative and is a lot more accurate in the localized area.

As you can see in the example below, the east end of Catalina is shielded by the wind and it shows areas where the wind is less due to the island blocking the wind in the NAM model. In the ECMWF model, it shows the same wind speeds all around the island. We all know that its not true in the real world.

ECMWF Model:
1631418979553.png


NAM Model:
1631419010806.png
 
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Carl

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Heading into 20 plus all night dont sound like fun to me
 

ShadowX

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Heading into 20 plus all night dont sound like fun to me

That for damn sure. If they follow this path to San Clemente, it won't be as bad. They do get a little protection from the wind and its mostly around 10-12knots. It does start to die down around 2AM. I doubt the captain would do it. They usually just aim straight for the direct path unless the waves are coming straight at them. They may track a diagonal line.

I'm just glad I'm not out there.

1631420493550.png


Once you are in this open area past San Clemente, you're "fooked" as they call it.
1631420781852.png


On top of that, you have 7-8 foot waves slamming straight at the boat's direction of travel at 9-10 seconds. Rock a bye baby...
1631420856437.png
 
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ShadowX

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You know its a beautiful calm and sunny day when all the cattle boats are hunkered down below San Clemente to get away from the wind today. I don't think anyone wants to be in the wind even though the big tunas were biting in Tanner bank.

1631475752029.png
 
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ShadowX

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Trip is canceled. Captain called in coming back from a 2 day and said they were taking waves over the wheelhouse.

I think it was the right decision. The 7-9 foot waves are no laughing matter. They got the brunt of that wind storm the past two days. We all love fishing, but safety always comes first.
 
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Carl

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Damn I'm smart
 

Carl

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Nevermind. I'm too dumb to use the multi quote.
 

Rmpsocal

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I’m on a 2-day on the Liberty that leaves Sunday night as well. The wind forecast SW of the Coronados looks much better than the outer banks. The full day and overnight boats fishing that zone have been getting decent hits on the YFT.

Good luck on your trip.

Just wanted to follow-up on this thread.

Fished the Liberty that left on Sunday night, 9/12. Forecast was as predicted. Crew said to get rigged up before clearing the point because it was going to be “sporty” heading to Tanner…and it was!

Made for a long and bumpy ride out. Didn’t arrive at Tanner until about 8am. Again, the forecast was spot-on, wind died down with a mixed swell. Very fishable conditions for the rest of our trip. Anyways, we ended up with BFT limits and I caught my first cow!

I hope the OP had a good trip

9842667F-3784-4376-ACEA-21AAF599B433.jpeg
 
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