and here's the link to that:I think you both dodged a bullet. The storm moved in faster by a few days. Saturday and Sunday are nasty days in terms of the wind. On Monday/Tuesday, the combined waves from the wind and swells is around 7-8 ft at around 12 seconds and the wind dies down a bit. Its definitely not calm, but not horrifying as Sunday.
Again, never trust weather reports 7 days out, because the time when the weather hits would change by a few days. Its only reasonably accurate about 3 days out.
In case you don't know, there are several prediction models. The ECMWF is reasonably accurate and has been used to track hurricane paths. They have prediction models up a week away, but results are only very good within a day or two.
The "NAM" model is better in terms of details. You can see the blue areas on the farside of the islands while other models show same color around it. It is very accurate within a day or two. The model only predicts up to 3 days ahead because they know any prediction after that is pure bullshit at this level of detail.
I usually use the ECMWF model to look at what is coming ahead 7 days out. I know the maps are not accurate after 3 days, but it gives me an idea of what is coming up in the week. Once I get close to the fishing day, I switch over to the NAM model to get a much better detail of whether I should cancel the trip since I'm on a private boat.
NAM prediction model: (red box shows how to change the prediction models and the yellow arrow shows the detailed wind pattern around the islands):
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Heading into 20 plus all night dont sound like fun to me
Trip is canceled. Captain called in coming back from a 2 day and said they were taking waves over the wheelhouse.
I’m on a 2-day on the Liberty that leaves Sunday night as well. The wind forecast SW of the Coronados looks much better than the outer banks. The full day and overnight boats fishing that zone have been getting decent hits on the YFT.
Good luck on your trip.