Game Prediction: Utah vs Northwestern

Discussion in 'Sports Forum' started by BiggestT, Dec 30, 2018.

  1. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    https://247sports.com/college/utah/...-3F-8D-FE-B6-86-36-D4-70181229_125247UtahUtes

    So who is going to be most likely to score any points at all? From an S&P+ perspective, it’s really not very close.

    Northwestern has the 32nd ranked defense, the 103rd ranked offense, and the 112th ranked special teams, making up an overall 80th ranking.

    Utah has the 22nd ranked defense, the 43rd ranked offense, and the 7th ranked special teams, making up an overall 17th ranking.

    Utah is better in all three phases, and is much better in the on-field matchups of Defense vs. Offense and Special Teams vs. Special Teams. Utah should own the field position game and should have much more success moving the football than Northwestern.

    Prediction

    Bowl games are fun, and that’s because they can be so hard to gauge. Inter-conference matchups with strength of schedule differences, 13 weeks of craziness, luck, and uncertainty. It is easy to get lost in narratives, coaching changes, seniors’ last games, and other matchup considerations, but often the best thing to do is just put the two teams down on paper, look at the stats, and make a decision for the bowl game just like you’d make in the middle of the season. When I think about what I looked at for Utah’s matchups each week in the regular season, this is what I came up with:

    • Utah is much better on offense, even with a depleted offensive unit
    • Utah is better on defense
    • Utah is in on another plane of existence on special teams
    • Northwestern overachieved this season despite being remarkably healthy all season
    • Utah underachieved this season despite being remarkably unhealthy all season
    • S&P+ says Utah wins by 15.5 on average on a neutral field
    Two good defenses will keep this game close, and in the 4th quarter it could even come down to who gets the lucky break, but because of the dominance in all three phases, Utah should win comfortably.

    Utah moves to 10-4 on the season. Kyle Whittingham moves to 12-1 in bowl games. Utah finishes with a top 15 S&P+ ranking for the season.

    Final Score

    Northwestern – 10
    Utah – 20
     
  2. invictus

    invictus AVD

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    Gotta be better than Clemson v. ND.
     
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  3. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Check out Big T coming up with some very solid game analysis:appl:, for which I agree nonetheless.

    However, the “on paper” breakdown seems a little incomplete and it got me thinking about;
    1- Northwestern is known as an superior academic school, therefore have really smart guys on their team. How does GPA factor into this matchup?
    2- Where does what’s in their hearts factor in?
    3- Where does what’s in their heads factor in?
    4- Does this team or that team really want to be there?
    5- How do we know which team is more satisfied with the gift package they receive, and how much will this effect their performance?
    6- What about the time zone thingy?
    7- What about the distance traveled factor?
    8- Grass stains do not go well with either teams uniform colors, which team tries to stay cleaner?
    9- If I pick Utah, the best Big T could do is tie, do I really play for a tie?

    I think I have figured out a mathematical formula to help me sort all this on paper stuff, and am changing my lean towards Utah. I will get back to ya with my final game pick.:D
     
  4. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    We bought our tickets on the NW side of the stadium, on the 50, because they were cheaper than the Utah side. Utah travels well.

    I considered getting my MBA at NW because I could have finished in one year, but my employer paid for USC and paid me while going. Going to school at night did not make me a USC honk. Lot of spoiled rich kids went there while I was burning both ends of the candle. I’m better for it.
     
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  5. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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  6. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    I will take Northwestern +7 and the under
     
  7. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Make it $100 and you’re on.

    01B5D7CE-A1CB-4C4E-A980-476ACC2184F6.jpeg
     
  8. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Utah D is schooling the Fur Paws. I’d be worried about that UW D.

    Watch Utah’s 99 at Nose Tackle. Leki Fotu, he was just a 2*. That’s how Utah rolls. USC came in late and wanted him badly.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  9. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Looks like PAC 12 going 2-0 against the mighty B1G, and 3-0 overall today. Do I need to dig up the eating crow memes? Yeah I know, we suck again.
     
  10. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Northwestern players are dropping out fast, remaining guys be like 6AFA0C72-6634-464A-8041-34475791C698.gif

    Check that! Northwestern be like “we don’t quit, unless it’s cable”:D
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  11. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Oregon couldnt even cover a 2 point spread against a really bad MSU offense. Nothing to brag about there as both teams looked like garbage. Not sure what you been watching but the B1G is far from mighty this year.:confused:
     
  12. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  13. hucklongfin

    hucklongfin Deep release specialist

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    What seasoning do you like on that crow? You can’t win with turnovers like that.
    Pac 12 is 3 - 3 so far. Way better than last year when Utah was it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
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  14. PacificBlue

    PacificBlue Member

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    You can serve that crow “on another plane of existence”!
     
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  15. skipjackrobert

    skipjackrobert I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Utah gave away that game and it seemed that NW wanted it more! Who does Utah think they are, my Trojans?
     
  16. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Fixed it for ya:D

    Didn’t see that coming and what a tale of two halves. Looked like Utah was going in for a score, then the strip sack scoop and score by Nortwestern completely changed everything.

    Sucks to loose the last two, but Utah is a solid program.
     
  17. NGSD1

    NGSD1 Dreamer

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    That was a brutal 3rd qtr.
     
  18. Pescador Paul

    Pescador Paul Well-Known "Member"

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    The second half just called. It wants to know when Utah is going to show up.
     
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  19. KnotyBuoyz

    KnotyBuoyz Not so newbie anymore

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    Bout time for a game summary thread from T, anybody seen him? Perhaps we should save him the time/effort. Seems pretty straight forward;

    *Utah controlled the first half and all of the on paper statistical analysis looked spot on.
    *Let’s take a break, it is half time fellas.
    *During the break PAC smack gets going and we head to the concession stand for some crow.
    *Northwestern, being the smart guys they are, decided to throw out what statistics say, then went on to controll the second half and pull out the win.
    *The stadium and this thread empties out with the exception of those of us looking to return our uncooked crow.

    Where did chef T go? Did his guys not want to be there? Is he still looking at the game tape? What the hell happened? We need answers!
     

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