El Nino is back?

Discussion in 'Fishing Chit Chat' started by matrixx611, Jun 15, 2018.

  1. matrixx611

    matrixx611 Well-Known "Member"

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  2. bloodtrail

    bloodtrail Done deal

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    Nah weather guys never get it right
     
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  3. Azarkon

    Azarkon I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Right now the call is 50% chance of a weak El Nino, won't make a difference to fishing but for people who want the warm water species, it should keep them around instead of dumping us back into cold water conditions.

    For the guys hoping for albacore, though... I'm sorry.
     
  4. fishboy93

    fishboy93 Well-Known "Member"

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    Is it really an El Niño? Seems more like a common yearly pattern at this point. Our planets changing...
     
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  5. Tar Pit

    Tar Pit Well-Known "Member"

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    A true El Nino comes with heavy winter rains on the west coast. When I see that it's a El Nino.
     
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  6. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    The forecast is for a 50% chance starting in like october. It will have zero effect this season. The rain would be this winter and the el nino would effect next summer as the water would not cool as much this winter allowing next year to be warmer.
     
    wnowlin likes this.
  7. Caseydmaze

    Caseydmaze Well-Known "Member"

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    2013, 14, 15, 16 and 17 was the el nino year, this year is not. Water will only be above 72 for 4 months this year.‍♂️
     
  8. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Actually technically 17 was a la nina, not that you could tell by the water temps.
     
  9. gecsr1

    gecsr1 28' Aquasport "Reel Adventure II"

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    stop being "weatherman" and go fish BlueFin while they are still here.....
     
    makairaa likes this.
  10. swami 805

    swami 805 I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Seems like every year is something, El Nino, La Nina. Is there a name for regular? We've had some really dry El Ninos too. Oceans really warm and we get hardly any rain. I call bullshit on the whole thing.
     
  11. wils

    wils lazy-ass well known "member"

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    "50% chance" and they get to keep their jobs.
     
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  12. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Maybe that's the case with a strong El Nino, but the correlation is not 1.00x.
     
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  13. sickcat

    sickcat Silverback

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    Considering we have only had 2 El Ninos where a lot of study has been done I suspect eventually we will find that there is a longer cycle going on and all El Ninos are not the same.
     
  14. lethalinjection

    lethalinjection Newbie

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    Sure does feel like an albacore year though. Gloomy cooler june
     
  15. makairaa

    makairaa I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    It does, except for the fact we have 70 degree water inside clemente in mid june.
     
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  16. matta57

    matta57 hack

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    the annual "el nino?" thread lol
     
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  17. invictus

    invictus AVD

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    So you are saying this Nino is not like that Nino, or the other Ninos? This Nino may not be the Nino we thought he was.

    We think we know so much. You're right, we have much to learn.
     
    the SLIDER and makairaa like this.
  18. kevina

    kevina I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    How can you be so sure, where &when is this going to take place??? Inshore/ Offshore, Mexican waters, Catalina, San Francisco???
     
  19. slydawg

    slydawg Always wishin' I was fishin'

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    For those of you that don’t speak Spanish, El Nino means, “The Nino”.
     
  20. BiggestT

    BiggestT I've posted enough I should edit this section

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    Go to the source and do not ignore that this is model based.....

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

    "The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
     
    stephen campbell likes this.

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