El Niño officially announced

the_tunaman

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its been a long time for me, but does this el nino typically bring warmer water to socal or cold water. What does this mean for BFT? is that a no show for them.... is it more a YFT anYT show on the banks???

El Niño allows the California Current to push farther north against the Humbolt Current, as I recall, and the water is warmer from the Equator north.

Bluefin are already here, and will likely remain so as long as the forage is there. El Niño temperature effects aren’t really drastic until Summer and Fall, if I recall correctly, and since the bluefin regulate their own body temperature to a large extent, they are more tolerable for acceptable temperature ranges.

Back in the day, bluefin used to be found in 58 - 65 degree water and were usually pushed onward once the temps got to 66 or better, again IIRC, but what we’ve seen the past two years since I’ve been back have shown the bluefin to be quite happy with temps in the mid to upper 70’s.

If the El Niño effect is strong this year, do look for significant numbers of quality yellowfin, dorado and yellowtail offshore this summer and fall.
 
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Maing

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    El Niño allows the California Current to push farther north against the Humbolt Current, as I recall, and the water is warmer from the Equator north.

    Bluefin are already here, and will likely remain so as long as the forage is there. El Niño temperature effects aren’t really drastic until Summer and Fall, if I recall correctly, and since the bluefin regulate their own body temperature to a large extent, they are more tolerable for acceptable temperature ranges.

    Back in the day, bluefin used to be found in 58 - 65 degree water and were usually pushed onward once the temps got to 66 or better, again IIRC, but what we’ve seen the past two years since I’ve been back have shown the bluefin to be quite happy with temps in the mid to upper 70’s.

    If the El Niño effect is strong this year, do look for significant numbers of quality yellowfin, dorado and yellowtail offshore this summer and fall.
    Awesome! Thanks for breaking that down. Makes a lot of sense from what I have heard as well!! I really want to catch more BFT! And hope they stick around!
     
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    Day0ne

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    Madden Julian Oscillation is the Man Bear Pig of Pacific tropical weather!
    Seriously, I've been looking at Columbia University forecasr

    Madden Julian Oscillation! That is the Man Bear Pig of Pacific Tropical weather.
    What I like is the Columbia University ENSO site. They list by months the probabilities of La Nina, neutral, or El Nino. Strong for all 2019. Numbers tapper off later in year.

    I was just referencing the link in post #22. No comprende Man Bear Pig
     
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    punted coho

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    Man bear pig is a half man, half bear, half pig creature from South Park.
     
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    NGSD1

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    The boat is serviced and ready and the reels are being serviced now. Bring it on!
     
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    marlyn

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    Man bear pig is a half man, half bear, half pig creature from South Park.
    No wonder Al Gore was trying to kill him,he doesnt add up either..
     
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    fishkilr

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    its been a long time for me, but does this el nino typically bring warmer water to socal or cold water. What does this mean for BFT? is that a no show for them.... is it more a YFT anYT show on the banks???
    The way things have happened the last 5 years anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen with any accuracy is livin in fantasyland..
     
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    Justin1976

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    The way things have happened the last 5 years anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen with any accuracy is livin in fantasyland..
    From what I understand, Only the 50+ Lb yellowfins and 30 lb yellowtail will make way into SoCal to celebrate El Niño the smaller ones stay in Mexico.
     
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    Aggro

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    I used to see a YOY rolling count of fish totals by species for SD but I can't find it. We could use that with a weather history overlay to guestimate how this year will go.
     
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    Maing

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    The way things have happened the last 5 years anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen with any accuracy is livin in fantasyland..

    I agree. Im just coming from Washington to fish socal. lots of things to plan. getting time off is a pain in the ass. trying to plan for the fall with several trips spread out over OCT-NOV. just want the best opportunity to get a BFT!!! it fishing.....cant predict it and if I could I would fish for a living...!!!
     
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    fishkilr

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    I agree. Im just coming from Washington to fish socal. lots of things to plan. getting time off is a pain in the ass. trying to plan for the fall with several trips spread out over OCT-NOV. just want the best opportunity to get a BFT!!! it fishing.....cant predict it and if I could I would fish for a living...!!!
    Actually so cal used to be very predictable... not just fishing but weather also..
    We used to have seasons for Santa ana winds but not anymore ..
    We do commercial fish and used to have things pretty dialed in as far as what,where and when but the last 5 years or so have completely flipped the script...
    Foaming Bluefin in 60 degree water 2 miles off the beach in December !!!???
    I guarantee you will find no one around here who has seen that before....
    When it was reported most guys thought it was a joke...
     
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    Sandydog

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    Foaming Bluefin in 60 degree water 2 miles off the beach in December !!!???
    I guarantee you will find no one around here who has seen that before....
    When it was reported most guys thought it was a joke...
    The water temp has been this warm (about 60 F) during winter in 1931, 1959, 1998, and 2014-2015. 1940-41, 1958, and 1993-94 were pretty close too. 1931 also had the previous highest recorded water temp at Scripps pier (78.4 F) until 2018 (78.6 F).

    https://shorestationsdata.ucsd.edu/lajolla_sio/figures/SST_SBT_latest.jpg
    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/shorestations/

    Also, I'm not convinced the water temp really had much to do with the bluefin showing up that close to shore. On the east coast, bluefin have been caught in water from 48-63 F. Our waters are in that temp range every winter. I suspect the bluefin swing through the Channel Islands and Catalina channel frequently if not every year. It's just that until recently, nobody was ever looking for them. In 1988 a purse seiner caught a 600+ bluefin off of Santa Rosa Island. They're rare enough that it's not worth it to go out there every day looking for them. So when they are seen or caught, it's because a boat lucked out and the big fish just happened to be where the boat was fishing.

    http://articles.latimes.com/1988-11-10/business/fi-266_1_san-pedro
     
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    fishkilr

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    Also, I'm not convinced the water temp really had much to do with the bluefin showing up that close to shore.
    I don't think water temps seem unusual but in my lifetime of fishing so cal more incredibly rare things have happened in the last 5 or 6 years than in the 35 years before that...
    We had a definite pattern for many years that would put us in certain places at certain times like clockwork with the occasional change up...
    Spent winter after winter since the early 80s bouncing between islands on sport and commercial boats and never saw 100 to 300 lb bluefin blowin up in spot after spot the way we have seen the last 5 years..
    Whale sharks and wahoo at the local rigs?30 lb cubera snapper taken at Palos Verdes..
    Spotter plane info that is absolutely mind boggling ..
    These last 5 years the term WTF has been used more than ever in the so cal fishing world...

    It seems the predictability of so cal fishing in the short term has become impossible..
     
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    Azarkon

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    This year will be interesting...

    First we have the polar vortex bringing temperatures down to near freezing in Southern California...

    dfe69859588013ee42a10e84886adeed3a058006b8547388211af84465272f0b.png


    But then we have the El Nino down south, and certain models are calling for a stronger El Nino later in the year...

    d61a92e76dff2e85b8cf409cfddfdc39e01934fde0083a816283686bbfd60853.jpg


    Nobody seems to know what's going on.

    What happens when an El Nino meets a polar vortex?

    Wahoo chasing albacore?
     
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    BiggestT

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    The water temp has been this warm (about 60 F) during winter in 1931, 1959, 1998, and 2014-2015. 1940-41, 1958, and 1993-94 were pretty close too. 1931 also had the previous highest recorded water temp at Scripps pier (78.4 F) until 2018 (78.6 F).

    https://shorestationsdata.ucsd.edu/lajolla_sio/figures/SST_SBT_latest.jpg
    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/shorestations/

    Also, I'm not convinced the water temp really had much to do with the bluefin showing up that close to shore. On the east coast, bluefin have been caught in water from 48-63 F. Our waters are in that temp range every winter. I suspect the bluefin swing through the Channel Islands and Catalina channel frequently if not every year. It's just that until recently, nobody was ever looking for them. In 1988 a purse seiner caught a 600+ bluefin off of Santa Rosa Island. They're rare enough that it's not worth it to go out there every day looking for them. So when they are seen or caught, it's because a boat lucked out and the big fish just happened to be where the boat was fishing.

    http://articles.latimes.com/1988-11-10/business/fi-266_1_san-pedro

    They caught fish to over 1,000 lbs during that Santa Rosa event.
     
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    Ali

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    The one thing that is different this year is that the tuna have stayed close to shore. We have had steady reports all winter of BFT with a handful caught/shot.

    With some stable weather coming this week and next don't be surprised to hear of BFT being caught by private boaters.

    I might go take a look on sat in the usual spots.
     
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    Maing

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    The one thing that is different this year is that the tuna have stayed close to shore. We have had steady reports all winter of BFT with a handful caught/shot.

    With some stable weather coming this week and next don't be surprised to hear of BFT being caught by private boaters.

    I might go take a look on sat in the usual spots.
    Sweet!!! Let us know what ya see???
     
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    Azarkon

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    The BFT tagging reports I've read recently confirm that the fish we're getting are the same ones traveling down from Japan. Coincidence between the reduction of international quotas on BFT catch since the 2012 report, and California BFT? Probably not.

    For those wondering where the albacore have gone... I'd guess it's similar.
     
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    plj46

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    This year will be interesting...

    First we have the polar vortex bringing temperatures down to near freezing in Southern California...

    dfe69859588013ee42a10e84886adeed3a058006b8547388211af84465272f0b.png


    But then we have the El Nino down south, and certain models are calling for a stronger El Nino later in the year...

    d61a92e76dff2e85b8cf409cfddfdc39e01934fde0083a816283686bbfd60853.jpg


    Nobody seems to know what's going on.

    What happens when an El Nino meets a polar vortex?

    Wahoo chasing albacore?
    It gets to near freezing every winter in SoCal.Go inland 15 or 20 miles and it does freeze every winter in SoCal.There's nothing El Nino about it.
     
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    Azarkon

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    On the coast, though, it hasn't been this cold in years. A couple of weeks ago, there were reports of snow in Malibu. Winter felt like winter this year.

    But it should warm up in the next few weeks so we'll see what that indicates for fishing. Should be interesting.
     
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