The damage all seems to be coming from inside the hull and not external so I am going with your theory until otherwise informed. Looks like a knee or something did that as the rail itself is still in one piece.Probably some oversized lardass like me trying to use the rail on a big bluefin, exceeded the strength of the hull.
They keep making the rods and reels stronger and stronger, something has to give!
I'll wager their out of the game for a bit . Their going to miss the weekend bite for sure .If the damage I can see is all the damage this can be fixed at the dock and back in business in 1-2 days. Just have to let the glass cure and slap some paint on.
Don't ask how I know.