I posted a brief report Friday evening for those going out Saturday, but think it worthwhile to post a full report. It seemed like some people really appreciated the brevity of my previous post, but I find it helpful to read people's full reports because it helps me develop plans for my trips. Also, I've heard a lot of varied opinions regarding the effects of moon phase on bluefin fishing so I did an analysis on that and will append the results to the end of this post, so skip there if you're interested but don't want to read a lengthy report.
It looked like everyone was planning to fish the zone outside the 371 and 302 on Friday and I hate fishing with fleets and I had heard that there were fish caught below the 425 with no one around so we opted to head south instead of west. We passed a massive school of dolphins with working terns about 3 miles west of north island but couldn't get anything to go. We got to the 425 around 0730 and found working birds, sonar marks and breaking yellowfin. We trolled around for nothing, but a boat a mile west of us got a few bluefin and yellowfin on the troll. We headed down toward the upper hidden on a SSE heading but it was lifeless on the way down and we stopped a few miles shy when someone reported that there was nothing going on there. We decided to head west between the 425/371 and upper hidden and it was looking really lifeless, but some terns working some schoolie yellowfin appeared out of nowhere. We got a triple going on the troll but only landed one of them, but then got two more on bait while the fish were blowing up around the boat. We wandered around that zone for a while for two more yellowfin on a blind jig strike and then decided to head to the 371 where people mentioned seeing fish all day and a few were caught on the troll. There was a pile of boats and no fish at the 371 and guys started reporting bluefin puddlers around the 302, but we didn't want to fish with the crowd so we went back to the 425 where we knew there were fish. Picked up a 35# bluefin on a cedar plug daisy chain 150 yards back and waited for the evening bite to happen but we gave up around 7 pm and headed for home. A few guys on the radio were reporting that the 302 was dead, but one guy said he got a few more bluefin on the popper under birds at the 302 at the same time. Ran through the south 9 on the way home and found another huge school of dolphin with working terns but couldn't get anything to go. Water temp and color was pretty consistent all day and everywhere that we went. Quite a few boats reported fish, especially before noon and after 5 pm, the vast majority being blind jig strikes on cedar plugs or poppers thrown around bird schools. If I went out tomorrow, I'd fish the 425 and the area several miles south and west of 425 looking for bird schools and trolling over sonar marks. The volume of fish out there is unbelievable. While trolling all over the 425, we were marking fish every few minutes with a 200 kHz beam. I've never seen anything like it. The fishing is gonna be insane when the finally start biting good.
I've heard a lot of talk about bluefin fishing correlating to moon phase, but it seems like some people said that bluefin bite best after a full moon and some said that bluefin bite best after a new moon. I pulled the 2018 season fish counts from April through November for the San Diego landings and compared the number of bluefin, yellowfin, yellowtail and dorado caught to the number of days after a new moon. I also looked at the number of "skunks", where less than 10 bluefin, 100 yellowfin, 50 yellowtail or 10 dorado for all landings combined are considered a "skunk".
The plots show polynomial trend lines to fit the data. Solid lines are the number of fish caught relative to the maximum number of fish caught over that period, and the dashed lines are the probability of a "skunk". The independent axis is days after the new moon, so 0 is a new moon, 7 is a first quarter, 15 is a full moon, 22 is a third quarter, and 30 is a new moon again.
The bluefin plot is the easiest to interpret. The most bluefin are caught and the lowest probability of a bluefin skunk occurs around 1 week after a new moon. At least for 2018, bluefin definitely bite better around a new moon. The time between a full moon and the third quarter is the worst time to fish for bluefin because the odds of getting skunked are twice as high and the fish counts are less than 1/2 compared to the week after a new moon.
Yellowfin behave slightly differently, with counts peaking around the first quarter and skunks peaking between the full moon and third quarter but remaining relatively consistent.
Yellowtail skunks are pretty consistent across the entire moon phase, but the yellowtail counts are twice as high at the third quarter compared to the first quarter.
Dorado counts are also relatively consistent, but catches are twice as high right before a new moon compared to right before a full moon.
Regarding practical applications:
If you didn't care whether you caught yellowtail or tuna, if you were fishing between the new moon and the first quarter, you should go tuna fishing, but if you were fishing between the full moon and third quarter, you should go to the islands for yellowtail or focus on paddy hopping.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching bluefin, fish the week after a new moon.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching yellowfin, fish around the first quarter.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching yellowtail, fish around the third quarter.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching dorado, fish the week before the new moon.
Be aware that this is all derived from 2018 data and we all know that fish behave differently year-to-year. Also, there were significant outlying data points for every plot, i.e., there were outstanding fishing days when the moon phase would predict a poor fishing day, and there were terrible fishing days when moon phase would predict a great fishing day. Basically, this is interesting data and might help a little, but fish whenever you can and target whatever species interests you. The plots predicted that Friday would be a terrible day for bluefin, but we went after them and managed to get one.
It looked like everyone was planning to fish the zone outside the 371 and 302 on Friday and I hate fishing with fleets and I had heard that there were fish caught below the 425 with no one around so we opted to head south instead of west. We passed a massive school of dolphins with working terns about 3 miles west of north island but couldn't get anything to go. We got to the 425 around 0730 and found working birds, sonar marks and breaking yellowfin. We trolled around for nothing, but a boat a mile west of us got a few bluefin and yellowfin on the troll. We headed down toward the upper hidden on a SSE heading but it was lifeless on the way down and we stopped a few miles shy when someone reported that there was nothing going on there. We decided to head west between the 425/371 and upper hidden and it was looking really lifeless, but some terns working some schoolie yellowfin appeared out of nowhere. We got a triple going on the troll but only landed one of them, but then got two more on bait while the fish were blowing up around the boat. We wandered around that zone for a while for two more yellowfin on a blind jig strike and then decided to head to the 371 where people mentioned seeing fish all day and a few were caught on the troll. There was a pile of boats and no fish at the 371 and guys started reporting bluefin puddlers around the 302, but we didn't want to fish with the crowd so we went back to the 425 where we knew there were fish. Picked up a 35# bluefin on a cedar plug daisy chain 150 yards back and waited for the evening bite to happen but we gave up around 7 pm and headed for home. A few guys on the radio were reporting that the 302 was dead, but one guy said he got a few more bluefin on the popper under birds at the 302 at the same time. Ran through the south 9 on the way home and found another huge school of dolphin with working terns but couldn't get anything to go. Water temp and color was pretty consistent all day and everywhere that we went. Quite a few boats reported fish, especially before noon and after 5 pm, the vast majority being blind jig strikes on cedar plugs or poppers thrown around bird schools. If I went out tomorrow, I'd fish the 425 and the area several miles south and west of 425 looking for bird schools and trolling over sonar marks. The volume of fish out there is unbelievable. While trolling all over the 425, we were marking fish every few minutes with a 200 kHz beam. I've never seen anything like it. The fishing is gonna be insane when the finally start biting good.
I've heard a lot of talk about bluefin fishing correlating to moon phase, but it seems like some people said that bluefin bite best after a full moon and some said that bluefin bite best after a new moon. I pulled the 2018 season fish counts from April through November for the San Diego landings and compared the number of bluefin, yellowfin, yellowtail and dorado caught to the number of days after a new moon. I also looked at the number of "skunks", where less than 10 bluefin, 100 yellowfin, 50 yellowtail or 10 dorado for all landings combined are considered a "skunk".
The plots show polynomial trend lines to fit the data. Solid lines are the number of fish caught relative to the maximum number of fish caught over that period, and the dashed lines are the probability of a "skunk". The independent axis is days after the new moon, so 0 is a new moon, 7 is a first quarter, 15 is a full moon, 22 is a third quarter, and 30 is a new moon again.
The bluefin plot is the easiest to interpret. The most bluefin are caught and the lowest probability of a bluefin skunk occurs around 1 week after a new moon. At least for 2018, bluefin definitely bite better around a new moon. The time between a full moon and the third quarter is the worst time to fish for bluefin because the odds of getting skunked are twice as high and the fish counts are less than 1/2 compared to the week after a new moon.
Yellowfin behave slightly differently, with counts peaking around the first quarter and skunks peaking between the full moon and third quarter but remaining relatively consistent.
Yellowtail skunks are pretty consistent across the entire moon phase, but the yellowtail counts are twice as high at the third quarter compared to the first quarter.
Dorado counts are also relatively consistent, but catches are twice as high right before a new moon compared to right before a full moon.
Regarding practical applications:
If you didn't care whether you caught yellowtail or tuna, if you were fishing between the new moon and the first quarter, you should go tuna fishing, but if you were fishing between the full moon and third quarter, you should go to the islands for yellowtail or focus on paddy hopping.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching bluefin, fish the week after a new moon.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching yellowfin, fish around the first quarter.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching yellowtail, fish around the third quarter.
If you want to maximize your odds of catching dorado, fish the week before the new moon.
Be aware that this is all derived from 2018 data and we all know that fish behave differently year-to-year. Also, there were significant outlying data points for every plot, i.e., there were outstanding fishing days when the moon phase would predict a poor fishing day, and there were terrible fishing days when moon phase would predict a great fishing day. Basically, this is interesting data and might help a little, but fish whenever you can and target whatever species interests you. The plots predicted that Friday would be a terrible day for bluefin, but we went after them and managed to get one.
. Honey it does fit!
